World GHG emissions (1750-2025)
1GT Carbon is equivalent to 3.6GT Carbon Dioxide

World Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1971-2025 (Units=Mt CO_{2 eq})
Total global CO₂ emissions from energy production (ie. fossil fuels), by country
Graph Data: European Commission & IEA (International Energy Agency)

World Greenhouse Gas emissions (1971-2025)
Could the energy insecurity fallout from Donald Trump's Iran war accelerate decarbonisation enough for emissions to peak in 2026? Fuel-poor nations turn to renewables as the economics of importing oil and gas no longer add up. Will electrostates rise to rival petrostates?

Hampton Court Park (Photo: Electric Shock)

CO₂ levels keep rising after emissions peak
Peak emissions does not mean that atmospheric CO₂ will fall. Far from it. They will continue rising until we stop burning carbon altogether.

Emissions miles off target

Carbon emissions have yet to peak, but even that is not enough. The warming won't stop until greenhouse gases already in the sky come down.

When will carbon emissions stop increasing each year?

All-time carbon emissions have doubled in the 30 years since Kyoto. As the world called for an end to fossil fuels and the damage they are causing, the response of producers has been to max out and take the profit before anyone could stop them. Each year, more carbon dioxide goes into the air than the year before. It will all remain there for centuries, heating the air and the oceans to the point that mass extinctions are inevitable.

Don't just blame 'Big Oil' though - we all share responsibility, by burning fuels to heat homes, drive cars, travel abroad, and tolerating politicians that allow it all to happen.

Glimmers of hope...

Europe's emissions are already falling year-on-year, and the world's biggest polluter, China, now leads the world in emissions reduction installations. It offers hope, but this is not enough. Far from it. Every new molecule of CO2 makes the problem worse. Only ending carbon emissions altogether will bring the spiral of global warming finally to a peak.

World emissions reality check

* Hover over charts for more detail

* Click on countries, hover over lines

World's 4 most polluting nations cause 53% of world's GHG emissions (Units=Mt CO_{2 eq})
China and the USA alone are responsible for over 40%. But China's emissions appear to have peaked in 2025. China is now the world's clean-energy superpower, adding more renewables capacity each year than the rest of the world combined. It also leads the way in electrification, with EVs representing 65% of all new cars sold, as well as electric trucks and electric short-haul shipping.
Chart data: European Commission & IEA (International Energy Agency)

4 most polluting nations

cause 53% of the world's GHG emissions, including 60% of the world's CO₂

* Click on countries, hover over lines

Next 16 most polluting nations (Units=Mt CO_{2 eq})
The trend in emissions from the next 16 most polluting nations is strongly upwards, with the exception of Germany, and more recently, Japan. The main drivers of this rise are methane (from agriculture and fuel exploitation), and fossil fuels used by the power industry, industrial processes and transport.
Graph Data: European Commission & IEA (International Energy Agency)

Next 16 polluters

show little sign of reversing a strong upward trends in emissions (with the exception of Germany and more recently, Japan)

Not just CO₂ ...

The world's methane emissions are surging, causing a spike in warming.

120x more potent than CO₂, methane causes 1/3 of avoidable global warming today. Cutting methane emissions should be the fastest and cheapest way to slash the rate of global heating.

Whilst methane's GWP fades over time, its short-term effects risk turbo-charging climate change past dangerous tipping points. Main sources of man-made methane emissions are:

Agriculture - 45% - from livestock waste, rice cultivation, crop stubble burning
Fossil Fuel industries - 34% - from venting/flaring/leakage of natural gas, and coal mines
Waste - 17% - from decomposing wet organic matter, especially in landfill sites

Photo: Wikimedia Genghiskhanviet

The Hidden Methane Problem
Methane causes 1/3 of global warming at present, yet official figures downplay this to 10% because they look at the long term. This hides the reality of methane’s impact today.

Big cuts in methane should be far easier to implement than CO₂ emissions

Agricultural Methane

Photo: Pexels/ Quang Nguyen Vinh

comes mostly from Livestock & Rice
...but solutions are gaining ground worldwide. Biodigesters capture livestock waste emissions and produce profitable fuel gas. Rice farmers are switching to modern techniques of 'alternate wetting/drying' to avoid the high methane emissions of flooded rice fields, and direct seeding to replace crop residue burning.

Rest of the World

Rest of the World: Asia (Units=Mt CO_{2 eq})
Whilst emissions are rising in all Asian nations (mostly from a low base), there are signs that the rises might be slowing down now, instead of accelerating. Some of the bigger polluters (Taiwan, Thailand) have barely increased in 20 years, whereas emissions from some of the most populous countries (Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Phillippines) continue to accelerate.
Graph Data: European Commission & IEA (International Energy Agency)

Rest of the World: Asia

Asia produces 2/3 of the world's carbon emissions. Emissions continue to rise in most asian economies, especially the poorest nations.

Rest of the World: Africa (Units=Mt CO_{2 eq})
Methane is Africa’s main GHG problem, accounting for nearly 3/4 of all its emissions. 50% of it comes from agricultural livestock waste (especially Ethiopia, Sudan, Chad & Nigeria), another 30% from poorly regulated fossil fuel extraction (especially from Nigeria, Algeria & South Africa), with the other 20% from waste & sewage. All are rising fast.

Africa produces less than 4% of the world's CO₂, and 70% of that comes from just 4 states: South Africa (29%) Egypt (19%), Algeria (12%) and Nigeria (9%). This illustrates how Africa's other 46 nations are neither cause nor threat of global warming.
Graph Data: European Commission & IEA (International Energy Agency)

Rest of the World: Africa

Africa produces less than 4% of world's carbon emissions

Rest of the World: Europe (Units=Mt CO_{2 eq})
Emissions are now falling right across Europe, but especially in the UK and EU states.
Graph Data: European Commission & IEA (International Energy Agency)

Rest of the World: Europe

Europe produces less than 10% of worlds CO₂, and is the only continent where emissions are falling

Rest of the World: Americas (Units=Mt CO_{2 eq})
Emissions are rising across Central and South America, but many of these nations also have a crucial role in preserving the Amazon rainforest and preventing deforestation of Central America's sub-tropical rainforests
Graph Data: European Commission & IEA (International Energy Agency)

Rest of the World: Americas

OECD ... the world's more affluent nations (Units=Mt CO_{2 eq})
The OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) represents the world's 38 most prosperous capitalist states, so no China, Russia, India at date of writing. This collection reveals that the upwards trend in emissions has started to be reversed in most affluent nations, especially in Europe.
Graph Data: European Commission & IEA (International Energy Agency)

OECD

Europe's wealthier nations have cut emissions the most since 1990, but other OECD members have increased.

Ex-Soviet Countries (excl Russia)(Units=Mt CO_{2 eq})
Emissions fall dramatically in most former Soviet-aligned countries after the Soviet Union ended in 1990. This is true for Russia too, but emissions are too big to fit on this graph.
Graph Data: European Commission & IEA (International Energy Agency)

Ex-Soviet Countries

Most former 'Eastern-block' countries' emissions fell dramatically after Soviet influence ended in 1990.

OPEC countries(Units=Mt CO_{2 eq})
Emissions from 'Petrostates'. This list excludes major oil producers USA, Russia, Canada, Norway and Australia that are not OPEC members, but all have lagged behind their peers when it comes to cutting carbon emissions
Graph Data: European Commission & IEA (International Energy Agency)

OPEC (Oil Producing and Exporting Countries)

OPEC represents states whose economies are built around oil production and export.

Small Island Developing States(Units=Mt CO_{2 eq})
The Maldives is one of the world's nations most threatened by rising sea levels, yet its GHG emissions have increased 23-fold since 1990. Similarly, the Pacific paradise of Palau has the world's highest per-capita fossil fuel emissions, treble that of Saudi Arabia, and nearly five times that of the USA. However, these are amongst a handful of exceptions, as most Small Island Developing States ('SIDS') remain amongst the most-threatened, lowest-polluting and least affluent of the world's nations.

There's an argument that some pollution figures could be distorted by the different challenges remote islands face, such as potentially higher reliance on air transport and imports.
Graph Data: European Commission & IEA (International Energy Agency)

Small Island Developing States

One of the world's nations most threatened by rising sea levels, The Maldives, increased its GHG emissions 23-fold since 1990.

Country Grouping	Emissions per Capita (t_{CO2 eq}pp/yr)
‘Petrostates’ & major oil producers (inc Canada, USA, Russia, Australia)	17-40
Wealthier Asian nations	8-13
Europe	5-10
Latin America	2-6
Poorer Asia	1-6
SIDS	1-5
Africa	0.6-4

Main sources of emissions

Where do most of the world's man-made GHGs come from?

(* Excluding GHGs released by land change uses, such as clearing forest to farm crops or biofuels)

GHG emissions rates since 1970

World GHG Emissions Per Gas/Sector (Units=Mt CO_{2 eq})
Graph Data: European Commission & IEA (International Energy Agency)

* Hover over chart for more detail

What are F-GASES?

These are families of synthetic gases made using flourine, that serve as refrigerants, aerosol propellants, fire retardant, insulation, etc. They include 'forever gases', PFCs, gas versions of the 'Teflon' family that persist in the air for millenia, and HFCs (hydro-flouro-carbons), introduced to replace ozone-depleting CFCs, but now causing 80% of surging F-gas emissions. There is also SF6 (Sulphur Hexaflouride), widely used to prevent fires in power grids, with 22,800x the warming potential of CO2, that takes thousands of years to decay. A new generation of F-gases, called HFOs (HydroflouroOlefins), are designed to break down in days instead of millenia.

METHANE from agriculture?

The largest portion comes from the bowels of livestock herds and their manure, but rice cultivation and burning of crop residues also produce significant shares.

Livestock methane - reductions of 10-20% are possible through feed additives, improved forage quality, and selective breeding, but the economic motivation is not very strong. Reducing meat consumption cuts emissions.
Livestock manure methane - Simple digesters can slash emissions by using manure slurry, organic waste - and human waste - to produce useful biogas
Rice cultivation methane - Methane-producing bacteria thrive in Asia's flooded rice fields, but new methods involve alternate wetting and drying, allowing oxygen into the soil to inhibit methanogens.
Crop residue burning methane - crop stubble burns unevenly, producing methane and the deadly smogs that plague Northern India and Pakistan. Direct seed drilling (such as the 'happy seeder' machine) avoid the need to burn stubble, and improve crop yields for growing numbers of farmers.

METHANE from fuel exploitation

Methane is an explosion hazard in coal mines and oil wells, traditionally managed by venting directly to the atmosphere or flaring (burning it off). Regulation and profits provide strong incentives for oil wells to capture and sell this valuable by-product. Coal methane is usually vented as it is much harder to capture at commercial levels of purity (>95%). Fracking increases methane leakages from oil wells. Abandonned oil wells can also leak methane (the USA alone has over 2 million abandonned wells) if not properly plugged, and coal mines continue to emit methane long after closure.

N2O from agriculture

Nitrous oxide is a lung irritant on busy city streets and homes, and an anaesthetic (laughing gas) used in hospitals. But in the atmosphere, its warming potential is nearly 300 times that of CO2. The main source is fertilisers broken down by bacteria instead of taken up by plants, producing N20. Fertiliser producers worldwide encourage farmers to smother crops liberally with fertiliser, resulting in increased material costs, soil degradation, polluted waterways, and GHG emissions: N20 from fertiliser breakdown and an equivalent amount of CO2 from the fertiliser manufacturing process. Studies have shown that fertiliser use is typically double the amount needed to maximise crop yields.