World CO2 Emissions
When will carbon emissions stop increasing each year?
All-time carbon emissions have doubled in the 30 years since Kyoto. As the world called for an end to fossil fuels and the damage they are causing, the response of producers has been to max out and take the profit before anyone could stop them. Each year, more carbon dioxide goes into the air than the year before. It will all remain there for centuries, heating the air and the oceans to the point that mass extinctions are inevitable.
Don't just blame 'Big Oil' though - we all share responsibility, by burning fuels to heat homes, drive cars, travel abroad, and tolerating politicians that allow it all to happen.
A glimmer of hope...
Europe's emissions are already falling year-on-year, and other major polluters look set to follow suit. Even China's emissions might peak in 2025. It offers hope, but this is not enough. Far from it. Every new molecule of CO2 makes the problem worse. Only ending carbon emissions altogether will bring the spiral of global warming finally to a peak.
In charts:
Who's to blame for rising carbon emissions?
World's 5 most polluting nations cause 66% of world's carbon emissions (Units=Mt CO
2)
China and the USA alone are responsible for 50%.
BUT WAIT! Emissions villain China is now a CLEAN-ENERGY SUPERPOWER,
adding new capacity so fast that emissions are set to start falling in 2025. It also has so many EVs - about 25% of all vehicles - that low petrol demand pushed world oil prices to slump in 2024. Could China emerge as the world's energy transition role model?
Source:
European Commission & IEA (International Energy Agency)
5 most polluting nations
cause 66% of the world's carbon emissions
Next 15 most polluting nations (Units=Mt CO
2)
Among the next 15 most polluting nations, those outside Europe have been very slow to address strong upward trends in emissions. Iran looks set to move into the top 5, displacing japan by 2025, followed by Indonesia and Saudi Arabia. Canada remains highly polluting, whilst Vietnam's emissions have grown faster than any other major nation
Data source:
European Commission & IEA (International Energy Agency)
Next 15 polluters
(except for Europeans)
have been very slow to address strong upward trends in emissions
Next 15 most polluting nations (European nations only) (Units=Mt CO
2)
A marked downward trend in emissions since 1980, especially in the UK, Germany and France (who fell out of the top 20 in 2023). UK emissions have fallen over 40% since 1990, more than all the other big economies
Source:
European Commission & IEA (International Energy Agency)
Next 15 polluters (European nations only)
UK and EU member states have taken a lead in cutting GHG emissions
Rest of the World
Rest of the World: Asia (Units=Mt CO
2)
Whilst emissions are rising in all Asian nations (mostly from a low base), there are signs that the rises might be slowing down now, instead of accelerating. Some of the bigger polluters (Taiwan, Thailand) have barely increased in 20 years, whereas emissions from some of the most populous countries (Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Phillippines) continue to accelerate.
Source:
European Commission & IEA (International Energy Agency)
Rest of the World: Asia
Asia produces 2/3 of the world's carbon emissions. Emissions continue to rise in most asian economies, especially the poorest nations.
Rest of the World: Africa (Units=Mt CO
2)
Emissions increasing right across Africa - albeit from a low base - show little sign of slowing down. Four states account for 70% of Africa's emissions (South Africa [28%], Egypt [18%], Algeria [13%] and Nigeria [9%]). This illustrates how Africa's other 46 nations are neither cause nor threat of global warming.
Source:
European Commission & IEA (International Energy Agency)
Rest of the World: Africa
Africa produces less than 4% of world's carbon emissions
Rest of the World: Europe
Europe produces less than 10% of worlds CO2, and is the only continent where emissions are falling
Rest of the World: Americas (Units=Mt CO
2)
Emissions are rising across Central and South America, but many of these nations also have a crucial role in preserving the Amazon rainforest and preventing deforestation of Central America's sub-tropical rainforests
Source:
European Commission & IEA (International Energy Agency)
Rest of the World: Americas
OECD ... the world's more affluent nations (Units=Mt CO
2)
The OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) represents the world's 38 most prosperous capitalist states, so no China, Russia, India at date of writing. This collection reveals that the upwards trend in emissions has started to be reversed in most affluent nations, especially in Europe.
Source:
European Commission & IEA (International Energy Agency)
OECD
Europe's wealthier nations have cut emissions the most since 1990, but other OECD members have increased.
Ex-Soviet Countries (excl Russia)
Emissions fall dramatically in most former Soviet-aligned countries after the Soviet Union ended in 1990. This is true for Russia too, but emissions are too big to fit on this graph.
Source:
European Commission & IEA (International Energy Agency)
Ex-Soviet Countries
Most former 'Eastern-block' countries' emissions fell dramatically after Soviet influence ended in 1990.
OPEC countries
Emissions from 'Petrostates'. This list excludes major oil producers USA, Russia, Canada, Norway and Australia that are not OPEC members, but all have lagged behind their peers when it comes to cutting carbon emissions
Source:
European Commission & IEA (International Energy Agency)
OPEC (Oil Producing and Exporting Countries)
OPEC represents states whose economies are built around oil production and export.
Small Island Developing States
The Maldives is one of the world's nations most threatened by rising sea levels, yet its GHG emissions have increased 23-fold since 1990. Similarly, the Pacific paradise of Palau has the world's highest per-capita fossil fuel emissions, treble that of Saudi Arabia, and nearly five times that of the USA. However, these are amongst a handful of exceptions, as most Small Island Developing States ('SIDS') remain amongst the most-threatened, lowest-polluting and least affluent of the world's nations.
There's an argument that some pollution figures could be distorted by the different challenges remote islands face, such as potentially higher reliance on air transport and imports.
Source:
European Commission & IEA (International Energy Agency)
Small Island Developing States
One of the world's nations most threatened by rising sea levels, The Maldives, increased its GHG emissions 23-fold since 1990.
Bushy Park (Photo: Electric Shock)
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